Vectors tracked
6
≥6 per cycle
ELEVATED
2
highest priority
MODERATE
4
watch
LOW
0
stable
Risk Vector Radar
Six risk indicators for 2028, rated CRITICAL · HIGH · ELEVATED · MODERATE · LOW. Radar position reflects rating band; click any vector below for detail and sources.
Risk Heat Grid — click any vector for the asymmetric read & sources
Regulatory Fragmentation
US voluntary review system diverges from EU mandatory obligations
Compute Concentration
OpenAI-AWS partnership deepens enterprise lock-in and supply chain concentration
Safety Gap
GPT-5.4 benchmark claims not independently verified
Talent Drain
No material developments this week
Energy Constraint
No material developments this week
IP Regime Collapse
No material developments this week
Vector Detail Table
Risk Vectors — full detail
⬇ export
| Vector | Rating | Changed | Headline | Conf. | Source tier | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Fragmentation | ELEVATED | Yes | US voluntary review system diverges from EU mandatory obligations | Confirmed | T1 | |
| Compute Concentration | ELEVATED | Yes | OpenAI-AWS partnership deepens enterprise lock-in and supply chain concentration | Confirmed | T1 | |
| Safety Gap | MODERATE | No | GPT-5.4 benchmark claims not independently verified | Assessed | T2 | |
| Talent Drain | MODERATE | No | No material developments this week | Assessed | T2 | |
| Energy Constraint | MODERATE | No | No material developments this week | Assessed | T2 | |
| IP Regime Collapse | MODERATE | No | No material developments this week | Assessed | T2 |